ToyJobs Blog Archives - Page 5 of 11

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Another Black Friday Disgrace and Toy Industry Hiring Hits an Air Pocket

Things promised to get ugly as the annual orgy of spending by stampeding shoppers was set to coincide with a strike by Wal-Mart workers, but a number of factors came together to ameliorate what could have turned into a true national disgrace. Rather than concentrating all of their price cutting in one massive Black Friday push, retailers spread the bargains over a long super shopping week. Many stores even opened and started sales on Thanksgiving evening. Rather than door-busting human herds, consumers came sleepily staggering in like retail zombies when they should have been home, laying tryptophan sodden on the sofa, actively avoiding piles of dirty dishes.

Several retailers also had earlier starts to their layaway programs which surely eased Thanksgiving weekend traffic as well as locking in prices at earlier pre-sale levels. Online sales also had a broader time horizon as Cyber Monday grew into what could be called Cyber Two Weeks. Both online retailers and the web arms of bricks and mortar outfits have been racking up big gains. Online competition has been fierce as retailers use computer algorithms to adjust prices in real time.

While all this dampened the Black Friday frenzy, there were certainly enough wild melees, parking lot gun threats, “panty bar” cat fights and trigger happy pepper spray police to go around (Stampedes and Gun Threats During Black Friday).

Meanwhile, back on planet Earth – toy industry hiring, which has been quite strong since about April has suddenly slowed. My feeling is that this is temporary and that after negotiating this air pocket we will continue our long upward climb.

Toy industry hiring has always been very event driven with companies regularly putting off decision making on their staffing needs until the next: trade show, sales call, order confirmation, etc. Earlier in my career, I was always flabbergasted by this. “If you need a top Wal-Mart salesman, what does it matter what happens at the next golf outing?” Over time, I’ve learned not to judge and just accept reality for what it is.

Since we are in the midst of the all important holiday shopping season, it is only natural for toy companies to wait and see what happens. Many companies will also have new budgets beginning in January and three of the four most important industry trade shows take place in January and February which adds to the temporary standstill. These will pass like the pages of a calendar, but it is no surprise that toy industry hiring often slows at this time of year only to ratchet back up in March or April.

Much less certain is the outcome of the high speed chicken match going on in Washington, D.C. The brief spell of post election “happy talk” is now over. The two parties are as far apart as ever. In response, U.S. companies are scaling back hiring and investment plans at the fastest pace since 2009. Many companies have put together two 2013 budget plans for different outcomes to political negotiations over the impending fiscal cliff. Not only will going over the cliff probably throw the US (and global) economy into recession but it will be compounded by companies turning off the spending spigots.

Politicians of all stripes are up in their own heads trying to figger out which game theory scenario they like the best. Negotiate now or let it all slide over the fiscal cliff? Which helps me more? Which hurts him more? Who will get the blame? Never mind the economy or the public.

At the time of this writing there arn’t any substantial talks and the situation is in stalemate. Last week, Obama didn’t mention a “grand bargain” but rather “putting together a framework.” I think “framework” is code for “punt” and that things will be put off for six or twelve months. At that time we’ll be right back where we are now and things will once again devolve into gridlock and competitive finger-pointing. In the meantime, an economy that has been trying hard to recover continue sputtering along, once again left without enough fuel for takeoff.

Muddling through,
Tom Keoughan

P.S. – A recruiter, who we usually refer to as the Obvious Huckster in Ohio (OHiO) recently felt the need to publicly declare that he was indeed still in business. I guess nobody was quite sure. If you cross paths with him, I would suggest asking for references from five people that he has placed in jobs during the last six months. What you discover may surprise you…then again, it may not. 🙂

P.P.S – Lastly, I would like to share my condolences to all families and businesses adversely affected by the Superstorm Sandy. Personally, we took two feet of water into the first floor of our Hoboken home so I know what it feels like.

By ToyJobs|2020-11-20T08:51:01-06:00December 5th, 2012|ToyJobs Blog|Comments Off

Fall Toy Preview Stalls – Toy Jobs Soar

The Fall Toy Preview seemed a little…”off” this year. The mood seemed neither good nor bad, but somewhat flat. Traffic seemed to be down. I do understand that people were hidden away in showrooms and cubby holes and that there was what appeared to be a daily population surge around lunchtime. That said, the numbers did seem to be down a little. Some retailers, especially the larger ones, only sent partial teams and some buyers left early to head for Los Angeles.

Los Angeles was the source of many complaints. Most of the large, and now many second tier, toy manufacturers don’t support the Fall Toy Preview. Many, including Mattel, MGA, Jakks, Spin Master, Tomy and Funrise have their own October “show” in LA which means less retail buyers in Dallas as well as buyers leaving early. I understand the big boys wanting to monopolize buyers time without having them distracted by their smaller and often more innovative competitors. Unfortunately, the current situation hurts the toy industry as a whole.

In the last year or two the Toy Industry Association (TIA) has been able to twist the arms of the large companies into supporting New York Toy Fair in February. Now, it’s time to figure out a solution for the Fall Toy Preview. I am not going to be so presumptuous as to claim that I know what that solution is or where the show should be held if, indeed, it should be held at all. However, I think it’s a conflict of interest to sit on the TIA Board while at the same time passive aggressively undermining TIA initiatives which are meant to serve the toy industry as a whole. If a company is not going to support TIA/toy industry events let them be TIA members but not pretend to play a leadership role for the entire toy business.

September jobs data (nice segue, huh?) showed marginal improvement and the unemployment rate is now back to the same 7.8% that it was at when Obama took office. The details of the Bureau of Labor Statistics report were a little wonky showing that the US economy only created an anemic 114,000 jobs in September and that many of those were for part time workers.

I’m not going to go all Jack Welch on you here, but September jobs data is often a little funny. Every September, schools re-open and schools employ a large number of part time employees such as cafeteria workers, night cleaning crews, etc. So it should come as no surprise to see a spike in new part time hires for the month. Unfortunately these are not the types of jobs that are going to get our economy rolling again.

Anecdotally, the news is much better. Since mid august, Toyjobs has been providing our clients with top talent and our clients have been hiring them hand over fist (Toyjobs Success Stories). Also, the type of jobs that companies are looking for has started to shift from Sales, Sourcing and Safety (revenues, cost reduction, and regulation) toward the toy industry’s traditional focus on Marketing and Product Development (creativity and innovation). It seems as if companies have stopped just playing defense and are on the offensive once again.

We still face potential major problems in the European Economic crisis and the approaching fiscal cliff but if we can manage to avoid those, the US economy seems to finally be starting to pull out of its five year slump. While we can’t do much about Europe; it would be tremendously helpful if our politicians could get it together enough for a one year extension of the current taxation, spending and regulatory regime. This would give both business and consumers the confidence they need to start planning and spending and planning to spend. Maybe if our politicians can get their act together, European leadership will be able to pull it together over there, too…

Um, no I’m not holding my breath for either of these things to happen.

All the best,
Tom Keoughan

By ToyJobs|2020-11-20T08:51:01-06:00October 22nd, 2012|ToyJobs Blog|Comments Off

Toy Jobs – August Means Mixed Signals

When everyone heads off for summer vacation; any public utterance takes on greater importance because there are so many fewer voices in the air. The stock market may move but with so few active buyers and sellers it is difficult to discern if there is much conviction in its zigs or zags.

What we do know is that the eurozone is still locked in an existential crisis. There are rumblings of a slowdown in China and we are hurtling ever faster toward the fiscal cliff. While “Rome” may not yet be burning; both European and American politicians are either fiddling around or have gone on vacation.

The looming fiscal cliff and the threat that it may cause a double-dip recession is already making it difficult for businesses to plan, hire or expand. Retail sales have also stalled for several months as consumers wait for the other shoe to drop. Both businesses and consumers appear to be sitting on their wallets as they wait out tax, regulatory and election uncertainty. All this has caused the US economy to slow sharply.

While July gave us a better than expected jobs report with nonfarm payrolls rising by a seasonally adjusted 163,000, there appears to be something amiss. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of business activity fell below 50% (the dividing line between expansion and contraction) for the second month in a row for the first time since the depths of the Great Recession in 2009. At the same time the Bureau of Labor Statistics found that July factory jobs increased by 25,000. Hmmm, that seems a bit puzzling. It turns out that the BLS added 377,000 jobs for seasonal adjustment, the largest such adjustment for July in the last ten years. So, here in the real world, rather than there being 25,000 additional jobs there were actually 352,000 fewer.

The July unemployment rate ticked from 8.2% to 8.3%, while Toyjobs’ favorite statistic – U6, which includes people who’d prefer a full time job or more rewarding job but can’t find one, moved from 14.9% to 15.9%. That means that one in every seven Americans is either unemployed or underemployed. Paradoxically, the stock market keeps going up, reaching four year highs last week. Of course, this is also subject to a seasonal effect as stocks were traded in very small volumes as many buyers and sellers have gone to the beach.

There are, however, some reasons to be cheerful. Anecdotally, here at Toyjobs, we have, as expected, seen actual hiring slow during the summer months as companies have difficulty actually pulling the trigger due to vacations, daydreaming on Fridays, etc. There are, however, many searches “in process” which should close soon as the majority of people return to their desks. Also, search starts have been quite high since the beginning of August which is early in the annual job opening cycle. Stay tuned to our job board in the coming weeks as we’ll be posting many new toy jobs.

Also, the types of new job openings have started to shift. Over the last four years, what hiring there was has focused on Sales, Sourcing and Safety which can be translated to “revenues, cost reduction and regulation.” We are just beginning to see a boom in Marketing and Product Development jobs, which have been largely absent. Hopefully this is an indication that toy companies are no longer “hunkered down” and are ready to develop new products and try new things. Perhaps buyers are becoming less risk averse; at least in terms of the items they’re picking even if they’re still not willing to order on a timely basis.

Also, the National Retail Federation is projecting an almost 22% rise in back-to-school sales. We should keep in mind that these are only predictions based on a survey model and people will often say that they are going to spend more than they actually do. Add to that, back-to-school sales are a notoriously poor predictor of holiday spending – where the big money is.

The overall story here is that summer statistics, like summer love, is notoriously capricious. We shouldn’t put too much stock in them. We shouldn’t take too seriously the non-vacationing jabberers pointing at them to support whatever strain of the truth they are paid to push on the rest of us. Summers are slow and there is less going on which gives whatever is happening the appearance of greater significance. It’s wise to wait for September and, better yet, October data which is much more reliable to try to divine what our true circumstances are. That said, it would be incredibly beneficial if currently vacationing or campaigning politicos would give a one year extension to the current taxation, spending and regulatory regime providing both businesses and consumers the confidence needed to get their heads and wallets back into the game. No need to leave the beach. Ya’ll can just Skype it in.

All the best,
Tom Keoughan

By ToyJobs|2020-11-20T08:51:01-06:00August 22nd, 2012|ToyJobs Blog|Comments Off

PlayCon a Big Success – Toy Industry Adds Jobs!

In mid-May I attended my first PlayCon in Washington, DC, and I confess that I really didn’t know what to expect. I must say that I was beyond pleasantly surprised. The event was held at the Gaylord National Convention Center, a beautiful facility situated right on the Potomac. It was self-contained, easy to navigate, and within easy walking distance of several outposts of well know Manhattan restaurants.

After we were jolted awake by a combination of caffeine and an opening bagpipe ceremony, we settled in for a very meaty schedule of speakers. I’m not going to reveal here what they had to say (for that you would have to actually go) but I will give you a brief rundown of topics.

The first two speakers, Anita Frazier of NPD and Sean McGowan (who everyone already knows) provided hard data about trends in both the toy industry and some adjacent businesses. It was valuable to be able to confirm some things that you mostly knew in your gut, but more importantly some of the data was counterintuitive; especially on the hot topic of apps (it’s not just about product without inventory).

Well known children’s product consultant Tom McGrath then spoke at length about both the art and the science of license selection. Licensing can be very hit and/or miss, and Tom was very forthcoming about many of his wins and losses, why they occurred, and what he learned from them in hindsight.

Next up were Lego and Mattel. Everyone was thankful to them for opening the kimono on the why’s and how’s of their consumer research programs and I think we were equally grateful to Messrs. Wann and Barbour for refraining from revealing exactly what was under their kilts!

After lunch, Brian Torney of Kunoichi led an interesting panel about how to think about marketing in the digital world which also featured Hasbro’s Chief Visionary Steve Drucker. Steve peered into his crystal ball to prognosticate where technology might lead the children’s product business ten years in the future and beyond.

After breaking into workshop subgroups, everyone returned to see Bob Wann do a Q&A with senior Amazon executives Jon Witham and John Alteio. They discussed how to best do business with the online retail giant and also drilled down into the detail of how to optimize your product pages in order to sell more goods.

Lastly on day one, Bob Wann interviewed Neil Friedman who brings a unique perspective from spending a lifetime in the toy business including senior positions with both Mattel and Toys R Us. They talked about how manufacturers and retailers can work together more proactively and effectively. It is all about managing expectations; doing what you say you are going to do and most of all communication.

Day two kicked off with LeapFrog President (and former TRU senior executive) John Barbour speaking with TRU SVP Merchandising Richard Barry. After that we dove back again into the world of consumer research. First, with George Carey of brand strategy agency The Family Room who brought his unique perspective (backed by data, of course) on how families actually make decisions. It made perfect sense but was not at all what I thought it would be going in.

Renee Weber, VP Consumer Research for The Marketing Store, then spoke on the really big picture about some of her groups’ findings and how they have translated into the design of McDonald’s Happy Meal toys. Lastly, a lively panel on consumer research led by the very entertaining Paul Kurnit, toy advertising consultant at Kurnit Communications. (You can sign up for his RSS feed at psinsights.com)

Kudos go to Bob Wann and Shirley Price and the conference planning committee: Lourdes Arocho, Joel Berger, Mary Couzin, Richard Gill, Richard Gottlieb, Sharon Hartley, and Manuel Torres for putting together a program that was jam-packed with information. I would also like to commend all of the speakers for the spirit of sharing which prevailed throughout the entire conference. The content delivered at PlayCon was broad, deep, and thought-provoking. While everyone may know parts of this stuff, I think I can safely say that everybody in attendance was able to bring home some immediately implementable takeaways. If you weren’t there then you are just that much behind your competitors.

One thing I have learned over the last few years is that any event with Carter Kethley’s thumbprint on it is going to feature great food! At PlayCon, he did not disappoint and as always was the perfect host. Everything ran so smoothly that I realized that while the Toy Industry Association’s (TIA) Event Staff all appeared to be as serene as swans, they must have been paddling like hell underneath! Shout outs go to: Marian Bossard, Kimberly Carcone, Jackson Wong, Robyn Gibbs, and Kimberly Catucci.

PlayCon was a great place to network and meet new industry colleagues but more importantly for me a great place to solidify existing relationships away from the frenetic pace of trade shows where everyone is focused on selling – as they should be.

In other news (great segue, huh?) the U.S. had a pretty weak May jobs report. Employers added a seasonally adjusted 69,000 jobs last month and the estimates for the two previous months were adjusted downward. The unemployment rate moved up from 8.1% to 8.2%. To be completely accurate there has been some discussion that the Labor Department’s seasonal adjustment equation has been thrown out of whack. Read more here.

Factors contributing to the weak jobs report include the warm winter leading companies to hire seasonal workers earlier which boosted winter job growth while stealing from spring hiring. Additionally, renewed concerns about Europe with Greece, Spain and Italy all having trouble borrowing to finance their government spending has been unsettling. This could potentially lead to a domino effect amongst financial institutions. More importantly, the European recession will be a drag on global economic growth especially now that Asia (which has Europe as its largest customer) is now starting to slow. Lastly, there is the domestic political situation including the pending fiscal cliff which could drive the US into recession and may be causing businesses to hold off on hiring.

Anecdotally, here at Toyjobs we have seen toy companies continue to add to their staffs at a rapid clip. Toy search starts have also continued to be strong. That said, we are just about to enter the summer doldrums where for thirty years Toyjobs has seen certain regular patterns in both good economies and bad. I expect search starts to slow in the next week or two as the annual summer slowdown begins. Jobs will continue to be filled through the first three weeks of July as searches that began in May and June are completed. At that point things will be very slow until the last week or two of August when search starts begin to ramp up in response to the upcoming fall sales season. (Fall Toy Preview will be right around the corner.)

My concern is that due to either an implosion in Europe or continued brinksmanship and bipartisan idiocy in Washington, DC, employers may sit on their hands come late August and that the annual search start bounce will be muted. Most pragmatic people realize that the current tax and spending regime should be extended through 2013. We’re going to have an election in November to determine which ideological (idiot-logical?) path the country is going to take, but in the meantime let’s hope the politicians do not drive the bus off of a fiscal cliff. Since an extension is likely to be what happens anyway, let’s root for it to happen now so that businesses can plan which will hopefully lead to hiring and business investment. In the current political environment, however, I am not going to hold my breath.

Moving forward, we do have a few reasons to be optimistic. The biggest job loser in May was construction, which shed 28,000 positions. The industry lost hundreds of thousands of jobs as the residential housing market collapsed. In May, heavy construction jobs also began to be cut as the money for “stimulus/roadwork everywhere” has begun to come to an end. However, few other sectors actually cut jobs. Most simply did not hire much. One exception was the transportation and warehousing category, which added 35,000 jobs, mostly in railroads and trucking. Transportation is generally considered to be a leading indicator of economic growth. Secondly, Wal-Mart is growing again. First quarter earnings rose 10% as the retailing behemoth saw US customer traffic and average purchases rise.

So, the US economy is still growing albeit not quickly enough and faces headwinds in European and Asian economic slowdowns and a few potential landmines from Europe and Washington DC. I’m moving forward but cautiously with the feeling that if we can just avoid the landmines everything will be alright although not as good as I would like it to be.

Overdue Updates

Since the beginning of the year, I’ve been running so hard on the hamster wheel that a few things have popped up that I didn’t really have time to digest so I’ll share them with you here:

Toyjobs received a Constant Contact 2011 All Star Award for our newsletter which you are reading now. I would like to thank all of our readers for taking the time out of their busy schedules to look us over every month or so. I would also like to thank all of you who send in positive feedback after each publication.
Secondly, I have been elected to the Board of The Pinnacle Society as Treasurer. The Pinnacle Society is a group limited to 75 of the top executive recruiters in North America and I would like to thank their membership for being in excellent long-term educational asset as well as for putting their faith and trust in me.

So that’s it. Enjoy the summer slowdown. I hope you all have a chance to step off of the daily hamster wheel and spend some time relaxing and recharging your batteries for the next go round.
Moving Ahead Cautiously,

Tom Keoughan

By ToyJobs|2020-11-20T08:51:01-06:00June 19th, 2012|ToyJobs Blog|Comments Off

Toy Jobs Hiring Surge Continues

Toy jobs hiring has continued to surge as companies continue to add people because “we just can’t get the work done.” The common refrain that I hear is that retailers continue to increase the number of hoops that a manufacturer must jump through in order to get their products placed. During The Great Recession, companies cut so many people that they no longer have enough hands on deck to push all the work through in a timely fashion. Search starts continue to be strong despite last month’s flat unemployment numbers. It will be interesting to see what Friday’s jobs report looks like

A week and a half ago, I returned from The Pinnacle Society’s Spring Conference. This is a group of seventy-five of the country’s top executive recruiters and they are truly “The Big Dogs of Recruiting.” As you might imagine, the years 2008-2011 were difficult ones for the recruiting business and approximately 40% of the recruiting firms that existed in 2007 are no longer with us. In speaking with fellow Pinnacle Society members in 2011, the mood was patchy with some recruiting specialties (notably IT, insurance and accounting) returning to a semblance of normalcy while others continue to flounder. At Toyjobs, 2011 saw great improvement over the depths of 2009 and 2010, but it was still nothing to write home about. Heading to 2012’s Spring Conference, I was feeling optimistic because since the end of Hong Kong Toy Show, toy industry hiring had been soaring. At the Conference, I soon learned that hiring was back close to normal across all industry specialties. Of course, these are the country’s top executive recruiters so their numbers are likely to be stronger than the economy’s as a whole, but I see this as a strong leading indicator of more good things to come in the US employment market. Let’s all hope it continues.

Cautiously breathing easier,
Tom Keoughan

P.S. What is it with these Wal-Mart Vice Chairmen? First, we had Tom Coughlin pocketing a cool half million in gift cards for his personal use and now The New York Times alleges that Vice Chairman Edward Castro Wright was involved in a regular program of bribing local officials to facilitate the granting of leases and building permits while he was running Wal-Mart de Mexico. To date, these allegations have not been proven and we should all remember that The New York Times has a record of being a little aggressive at grabbing headlines and a little lax in their fact checking (Does anyone remember Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction – not to mention yellowcake). That said, many of us are aware of the sometimes strange practices one has to engage in even here in the United States just to get a permit to add screens to a porch. As a Wal-Mart shareholder, I’m upset but have to admit that I consider this a much better use of company funds than nicking three 12 gauge shotguns, a few half gallons of vodka, a large polish sausage, and a lone Celine Dion CD and hailing them back to your private compound for what must have been some sort of unholy (or at least unwholesome) secret Ozark ritual. In any case, just don’t be caught trying to give a Wal-Mart buyer a soda.

By ToyJobs|2020-11-20T08:51:01-06:00May 2nd, 2012|ToyJobs Blog|Comments Off

Toy Fair: Without Snow II – The Return

For the second straight year we had Toy Fair – without snow. As a New Yorker, I think I might grow to like this whole global warming thing. What a Toy Fair it was, with busier aisles and a newfound upbeat attitude. Specialty companies were writing record numbers of orders and even the sometimes grumbly mass marketers seemed to be pleased. I haven’t yet figured why everyone was in such a good mood. In 2011, total retail sales were up approximately 5% while toy sales were down 2%. The general consensus seems to be that every family in America got an iPad for Christmas. Maybe everyone was in high spirits because they all were recipients of said iPads. Perhaps, more likely, is that people have realized that the world doesn’t end very often and since it just ended in 2009; it is unlikely to end again soon.

Things kicked off Saturday night with the TOTY awards. Once again Carter Keithley and his Toy Industry Association (TIA) team put together a terrific affair. The food was great and everyone seemed to be having a good time. The TOTY awards have received some criticism which I think is unfair. Some have claimed that TOTY’s are only won by the largest toy companies. However, if you look at the ballot you will see that over 50 companies had products represented. That includes such smaller companies as: WOWWEE, Fashion Angels, Cepia, Thinkway, Plasmart, Thinkfun, The Bridge Direct, Alex, Thames + Kosmos and the list goes on and on. Blip Toys and Innovation First both won TOTY awards in 2011 with Innovation First winning again in 2012. Most products are initially self-nominated by their companies but are then culled by committees that include retail buyers, toy industry, journalists, academics and inventor/designers. The winners are then voted on by a broad electorate of consumers, retail buyers, journalists and TIA members. While suggestions for tweaking should certainly always be welcome, I don’t think anyone can really say that this process is overly biased.

After a day of pounding the floors at the Javits Center, Sunday night brought the Women in Toys (WIT) dinner. While always a lovely affair, this year it was extra special. Genna Rosenberg and her team should be commended on their attention to ever detail. The venue – The Lighthouse at Chelsea Piers – was stupendous. I must confess that I did miss the dark paneling and overstuffed leather chairs of The Penn Club, but this was much more appropriate. Perhaps we’ll return to the Penn Club for the first annual Men in Toys Single Malt Scotch Tasting and Cigar Smoke-off. Meanwhile, back at the WIT Dinner, drinks were served and everyone was in a grand and chatty mood. Dinner was unveiled in a beautiful room and the food was “deelish.” Congratulations to all Wonder Women Award winners for their careers, their awards and their modest and succinct acceptance speeches.

New York Toy Fair continued with large crowds and good cheer (not to mention the usual bouts of “Javits feet”). Early Wednesday morning I snuck out of town and hopped a flight to New Orleans for a few days of good food, good music and a few glasses of wine in the evening (No! I do not drink Alabama Slammers – nor should you). Unfortunately my 8AM flight didn’t arrive until 9 at night. Note to self: US Airways – Never Again!

On the toy industry jobs front, the news has been good. Starting two weeks before Toy Fair, Toyjobs phone started ringing off the hook with job opportunities. Since then, Toyjobs search starts have exploded and though it hasn’t quite happened yet, companies seem eager to pull the trigger and actually hire talent once they find it. For various competitive reasons, we tend not to post our search assignments on our job board until we’ve finished most of our initial work on them so stay tuned – we’ll be updating it every Tuesday.

Now that the world probably won’t end again for awhile and the companies that were going to fail have done so; the rest seem to have decided that it’s time to get back to business. Many companies have cut staff so much in the last few years that they can barely get their work done. Companies have been running so lean for so long that there is a lot of pent-up demand.

Unemployment numbers continue to strengthen but we still have a long way to go. The economy continues to grow slowly but is vulnerable to outside shocks. The European Debt Crisis, for the moment, seems to be temporarily resolved. That said, markets are already betting that Greece will default again. Grey market pricing for the new, yet-to-be-issued “haircut bonds” is already selling at distressed levels and nobody expects Athens to lower its overall debt level to 120% of GDP by 2020.

Oil prices (and raw material costs for toys) could spike due to (election year?) sabre rattling in the Middle East. In an election year, politicians of all stripes will likely be promising increasingly “stupider” things. All of these present challenges. There is also a chance that the increase in job openings represents a temporary new year budget bump and will subside by June. But from my vantage point, barring any of these external shocks being realized (is that enough hedging for you?); we are beginning to see a return to normalcy albeit one moving much more slowly than any of us would like. The light at the end of the tunnel is growing slowly larger.

Muddling Thru,
Tom Keoughan

By ToyJobs|2012-03-12T10:28:39-05:00March 12th, 2012|ToyJobs Blog|Comments Off

Toy Jobs, 2012: More of the Same – Steady As She Goes

December hiring rose pushing the unemployment rate to its lowest level in nearly three years, suggesting that the US recovery is gaining traction. The economy added 200,000 jobs, double November’s pace and the unemployment rate fell from 8.7% to 8.5%. Although the trend is clearly positive, the hype over the December jobs report exceeds the reality. Job creation is still running at too low a rate to heal the woes of the US labor market and bring unemployment down to an acceptable level. About forty percent of the newly created jobs were temporary holiday season jobs in either retail or courier services and many of those jobs are disappearing as we speak. Also, the US remains vulnerable to setbacks if the European financial crisis deepens and spreads, or if surging oil prices crimp consumers and companies. That is not to say that things aren’t improving. They are, just not quite as quickly as the press or certain stripes of politicians are painting them.

On the positive side, Christmas retail sales appear to have been strong. The press has been harping that retail sales rose only 0.1% in December from November. However, holiday sales – defined as November and December’s retail sales excluding autos, gas and food service – rose about 5% from the year earlier level, to a record high. Many potential December sales were pulled forward into November prodded by retailers offering earlier discounts than usual. Many retailers’ profits took a hit reflecting slow traffic in mid-December followed by heavy discounting to clear inventories. They have created their own problem by training consumers to wait for the Big Sale. In doing so, they damage their margins and will ultimately try to improve them by beating up their suppliers. Suppliers will then beat up Asian factories (if there are any left) who will in turn squeeze paint resin and raw material suppliers. It’s a cycle almost perfectly designed to tamp down potential employment everywhere.

Reports back from The Hong Kong Toy and Games Fair are that it was a sparsely attended and relatively quiet show, although one with heavy international retail traffic. It may have been subdued by Chinese New Year falling earlier this year. I would have preferred more positive reports but at least the reports weren’t negative. Couple that with strong holiday sales and the slowly recovering US economy and I see things remaining status quo. Hiring will continue to improve at an increasing rate as it has since August 2011 but the recovery will be fragile and susceptible to financial woes potentially spreading from Europe, possible oil surges and trouble in the Middle East and general and rampant idiocy and electioneering coming out of all quarters of Washington D.C.

Muddling thru,
Tom Keoughan

By ToyJobs|2020-11-20T08:51:01-06:00January 25th, 2012|ToyJobs Blog|Comments Off

Toyjobs Prevails in Personal Fraud Suit vs. Ivars Sondors

The Superior Court of New Jersey has awarded Toyjobs a default judgment in the amount of $39,456.00 in its personal fraud suit against former A-HA Toys president Ivars Sondors.

Toyjobs president Tom Keoughan said: “I certainly expect that Mr. Sondors will try to make it difficult to collect but we have chased him for over three years across two continents. He should realize by now that we’re not going away. The beautiful thing about a judgment obtained on a Complaint for fraud is that it can’t be cleared through bankruptcy. It sticks around and so shall we.”

By ToyJobs|2020-11-20T08:51:01-06:00December 7th, 2011|ToyJobs Blog|Comments Off

Economic Uptick Spurs Stampeding Human Herds

Human herds were out in force during the four day long national disgrace presided over by Wal-Mart, Best Buy and their retail brethren. The long weekend “wilding” saw shopping devolve into a full contact sport replete with tramplings, taserings, shootings, various acts of police brutality and people robbing each other in the parking lots. Unfortunately, this seems to be the real “99%”.

At a Wal-Mart in Southern California a 10PM stampede turned ugly when a woman used pepper spray to “gain an upper hand” over her fellow creatures. Over twenty people suffered minor injuries as she attempted to clear a path to the electronics section. The woman has since turned herself in but, as of this moment, Toyjobs has been unable to determine whether she was indeed an active member of the Oakland police force – another national disgrace.

In Pennsylvania, it was reported that “girls(?)” AND their mothers were shoving and punching each other in a melee at a Victoria’s Secret outlet. We can only imagine that this will inspire the next big late-nite cable TV reality show. New Jersey officials were heartened by the fact that their cultural ambassador – Snooki – was not involved. Retailers were “pleased” with the strong start to the holiday shopping season, According to the National Retail Federation. Total sales over the four days grew 16.4% and individual consumers spent an average of $398.62 up 9% from last year. Online sales were extremely strong for the entire period as well as Cyber Monday.

Black Friday is a notoriously poor indicator of sales for the entire holiday shopping season and some analysts are warning that this could be only a temporary bright spot rather than a true revival of the consumer economy. This gloomier interpretation says that short-lived deep discounts merely pulled forward from December sales and that price slashing is the only thing that can encourage cash-strapped consumers to spend and that they will shut their wallets again now that the deals have gone. My gut tells me that those human herds aren’t exactly the types that are able to adhere to a budget. I think they will be ready to stampede Pamplona style whenever retailers wave their red capes.

On the bright side, retail sales have risen for six months in a row. Even Wal-Mart broke a two year stretch of same-store sales declines by growing 1.9% in the third quarter but this came at the cost of lower margins. More deep discounts mean lower profit margins for retailers who will, of course, pass that on to their suppliers through auctions and price beat downs. That is reflective of what I continuously hear from senior toy executives: “higher sales but lower margins.” Also, retailers brought in very lean inventories and that could limit upside potential if holiday demand continues to be strong. The scramble is now on to get more goods out of domestic manufacturers and those with domestically warehoused product.

After a June/July slowdown, since early August the US economy has been improving slowly but at an increasing rate.The November unemployment rate fell from 9% to 8.6% while payroll growth accelerated to 120,000. The difficulty with the jobs report is that it is actually two reports: the unemployment rate is based on a survey of 60,000 households while the jobs number comes from a different survey that covers the payroll records of about 140,000 businesses. The payroll number is less volatile and widely viewed as the more reliable of the two. The sharp drop in the unemployment rate was partly due to a shrinking labor force which suggests that some unemployed people have become discouraged and stopped looking for work. Once they start searching for a job again the unemployment rate could tick higher. Meanwhile, payroll growth of 120,000 remains well below the level that most economists consider consistent with a strong economic recovery. In addition, payroll numbers were lifted last month (as they will be for the next two) by temporary holiday retail hiring. Taken together the jobs report does signal improvement but not as much as headlines suggest.

As the US economy continues to slowly improve, the European debt crisis is the joker in the deck. The euro is now close enough to going off the rails that Angela Merkel and other European “leaders(?)” are now less focused on provincial politics and finally closing in on a solution. The Cliff Notes version is that Merkel supports European Union treaty revisions which would force debtor nations to fix their financial problems. This is, of course, the long term solution but ignores the crisis that it upon them right NOW. The rest of Europe is looking for a “backstop” or lender of last resort to guarantee all debts. That would likely be either a European Central Bank declaration or the issuance of Eurobonds for which all EU members would be liable.

In either case, the weight would fall heavily on Germany’s shoulders because they have the strongest economy and have behaved in a fiscally responsible manner. Bailing out the basket cases of Southern Europe doesn’t play well in domestic German politics. Think of it like the displeasure that responsible US households would have at being told to pay higher taxes in order to bail out people who took a flyer and “bought” a house that they couldn’t possibly afford. True, many American households are in trouble because someone lost a job or got sick or are underwater due to the housing market meltdown. Everyone seems to be able to get their minds around that sort of thing. Germans see a completely different type of situation in the irresponsible behavior of the Greeks not paying their taxes and then retiring to the government dole at age 50.

The truth is that Europe is like America. It needs both a long term fix AND short term crisis relief. In Europe’s case the clock is ticking down to a matter of weeks and with their backs to the wall, they finally seem to be looking at a two-pronged approach. Once the ticking time bomb is taken from the room, US markets should stabilize and the economy should continue to move forward. That said, in the US it appears as is nobody is prepared to act like a grown up until after the upcoming election. Fortunately that is less than a year away.

In the toy industry, search starts have remained strong and some companies have actually been hiring while others continue to play “hurry up and wait” even after they have selected a candidates. I suspect that decent holiday sales numbers will lead toy companies to have an increased sense of stability spurring somewhat larger budgets. This should lead to continued strength in search starts and companies feeling more confident in actually completing a hire. Things are getting better faster but…

Muddling through,
Tom Keoughan

By ToyJobs|2020-11-20T08:51:01-06:00December 7th, 2011|ToyJobs Blog|Comments Off

Fall Toy Preview: Upbeat and Productive

As I flew toward Dallas reading the Daily Doom & Gloom, I had a sense of trepidation about what the mood at the Fall Toy Preview might be. I’m happy to say that I was pleasantly surprised as everyone was pretty upbeat (it’s slinky, it’s slinky). That’s not to say that anyone was “irrationally exuberant” but I didn’t see all the slump shouldered long faces of a year ago.

At times the traffic seemed to be a little light until I realized (doh!) that this was a “by appointment only” show and that everyone was stuffed into their little cubicles having hopefully productive meetings (It’s slinky, It’s Slinky). There weren’t supposed to be a lot of people just milling around (like me). With the exception of Tuesday morning, most companies had full dance cards and all of the major retailers were well represented. The show was “player dense” with only serious toy companies showing and only serious customers showing up. In summation the Fall Toy Preview was upbeat and productive.

As the showed ended, I snuck off to Austin for a few days of good food and good music under the guise of awaiting the September jobs report. The report was better than expected as the US economy added 103,000 new jobs raising hope that a “double-dip” recession will be avoided. The alarming jobs data from July and August were also revised upward. It seems that instead of collapsing after the summer’s debt ceiling fiasco, the job market appears to have weakened slightly and is now beginning to rebound, albeit slowly.

There are 1.4 million more people on nonfarm payrolls than there were a year ago. That sounds good but it comes to an average of just little over 100,000 per month, which is nowhere near large enough to get the economy really growing again. In addition, Toyjobs favorite labor statistic, U6 (which includes people who have given up trying to find work as well as those working part time out of necessity rather than choice) has surged to 16.5% – its highest level this year and from a low of 15.7% in March. So, things are improving but at a very slow rate.

What’s holding us back? In a word – uncertainty. We are having a slow and very fragile recovery but there are lots of icebergs around. The tricky thing about icebergs is that even if you can steer around what you can see, no one knows what’s under the surface. The press is pumping us daily doom and gloom about the European debt crisis. In reality this doesn’t affect the Main Street economy all that much. In fact, through the summer, retail sales have continued to slowly advance. It does affect the big money center banks who in their usual style – chased yield – and bought bonds from places like Greece(?) and Italy(?) in order to capture a few extra points of yield for their “safe” bond portfolios. In their Wall Street way they have done this in huge amounts with large amounts of leverage. Sound familiar? Needless to say the large European banks are up to their eyeballs in this junk. So, while this may not affect the Main Street US economy today… if it all falls apart then everything goes kerblooey!

The usually sober Senate led by the serial idiocy of Senator Charles Schumer has recently passed a currency bill aimed at China. The legislation was widely opposed by companies that do business with China. Small consumer goods companies, like toys and juvenile products, know that this sort of thing will make their manufacturing costs go up and their margins go down. Large companies selling to China (GE, Boeing, Bechtel) are afraid that even if it doesn’t start an all out trade war that: “They’re going to start f–king with us”. But the Senate was determined. Stated Schumer: “We’ll shoot ourselves in the head if we have to!” Could it be? That it’s all electioneering? That the Chinese government rarely votes in US elections? That Senators are just beating their chests because they know the bill won’t pass the often less sober John Boehner and the usually less rational House? And that nothing will really happen? No. That sort of thinking is just way too cynical.

“Now hold on. There’s plenty of Senators stupider than me.”

Uncertainty. Uncertainty has been the theme song (Joe Biden as the Skipper. Guess who plays Gilligan) of the Obama years (not that it’s all his fault). Businesses still don’t know what their taxes will look like or what their regulations will be. Just last week the Obama administration threw out part of their own probably never to be implemented health care bill (the long term care portion). Business cannot confidently make plans to invest in people or products without knowing what the playing field will look like. It is unlikely that things will noticeably improve until the next election. Of course if Michelle Bachmann is elected then all bets are off. That said, I do believe that there is reason for optimism.

Toy Industry search starts, which jumped ahead in August, have grown at an increasing rate. (IT’S SLINKY, IT’S SLINKY). Please follow our job board in the coming weeks as we expect lots of new postings (or sign up for our RSS feed to be alerted of all changes instantly). Companies seem to have realized that they need to plug some holes and add some talent, but there is a little hitch. Here at Toyjobs we are able to find our clients the people they need quickly and efficiently. That said, we have repeatedly been running into situations where companies quickly determine who it is that they want to hire, but then stall when it comes time to pull the trigger. Sometimes this goes on for months and I’ve seen it drag on for long as ten months. We have had a couple clients lose out on their chosen person because they waited while another company acted.

I’m guessing that many companies just don’t realize what goes on in a candidates head when they’re chosen but then made to wait…. They wonder. They wonder if there is some objection you have to their background that you are not telling them about. They wonder if you are “dating” other people and maybe they should just move on. They wonder if there is some financial problem at your company which constrains you from hiring them. They wonder what it would be like to work for your company if they need a quick decision in order to get something done. They wonder about all of these things and pretty soon they begin to have doubts and the romance is gone. The bloom is off the rose.

I am NOT advocating that companies rush into hiring anyone but many companies know very well that they are taking an inordinate amount of time between first interviewing a candidate and actually pulling the trigger and making them an offer. Remember that the best people are also being courted by your competitors and if they can be decisive and come across as a dynamic get it done organization, they are going to attract and return the best talent. Remember the old adage – Time Kills Hires.

Everyone knows it’s slinky

Tom Keoughan

By ToyJobs|2020-11-20T08:51:02-06:00October 19th, 2011|ToyJobs Blog|Comments Off

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