Toy Jobs

Making Sense of Conflicting Economic Signals

To better understand all the conflicting economic indicators being reported, one needs to dig a little deeper than the headline numbers. Hiring has been strong for most of the year which has lead an increasing number of people who left the workforce to rejoin it. More jobs has meant higher consumer confidence and a greatly increased consumer spending. Some of the increased consumer spending has also been driven by banks.

Bank prmonthly-changeofits have been squeezed by long term, record low interest rates. To make up for it, they have been pumping credit cards out to more people and increasing credit card loan limits while at the same time increasingly loaning that money to riskier borrowers. Over the past year, US banks have added $54 billion in loans to consumers through loans on credit cards. After contracting during the financial crisis, credit card debt is not expanding at its fastest rate since 2007.

You would think that economy would be booming but GDP has only grown at a 1% rate thus far this year. The problem is that businesses have been holding back on spending on everything from computers to new equipment and factories. We need both consumer and business spending otherwise it’s as if the economy was trying to ride a bicycle with only one pedal.

If businesses are confident enough to hire, why aren’t they also putting money into expansion efforts? Oneexplanation is that workers are relatively cheap and also easy to get rid of should the economy slow. There is also plenty of spare production capacity, so companies don’t yet have much incentive to devote funds to new projects. Most companies will be conservatives with their balance sheets until they see signs of a growth rebound. They will also hold off investing until they have a better sense of the future tax and regulatory regimes that they are likely to us-subprime-ccface next year. Business spending should begin to pick up after the November elections, regardless of who is elected as businesses are better able to forecast.

The good news for the toy industry is that business is booming. Toy sales have been growing for the last year and a half at a 6 to 7% annualized rate. Strong sales have also mean that toy companies have been adding people. Toyjobs is having a bang-up year and is placing people at a level we haven’t seen since 2008. It is also heartening to see the return of hiring in the Marketing and Product Development sectors. Hiring in these areas has been extremely slow since the beginning of the financial crisis. I’m a little concerned that we haven’t seen the usual avalanche of toy Sales jobs that we usually see this August. Perhaps toy execs are all away on vacation. They better wake up! Fall Toy Previews are only four weeks away! I look forward to seeing everybody there.

All the best,
Tom Keoughan

By | August 22nd, 2016|ToyJobs Blog|Comments Off on Making Sense of Conflicting Economic Signals

Toyjobs Continued Its Hot Hand

After a weak first quarter, Toyjobs followed up April, its best month ever, with a strong May showing. This mirrors the economy as a whole which, during the last couple of years, has had a series of weak first quarters following by markedly increased (although still tepid) growth. The latest projections from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta are for second quarter GDP growth of 2.5%. Overall, it should come as no surprise that the toy industry has been hiring, even though some companies have experienced a bit of a Star Wars hangover. NPD has reported that toy sales in the US increased 6.5 % in 2015 and another 6% in the first quarter of 2016.

Moving forward economic signals appear to be mixed. US credit and debt balances have been soaring as consumers grow more comfortable carrying debt and spending money.

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Pending home sales rose in April to the highest level in over ten years. April also saw consumer spending rise after a six-month slump. Wal-Mart rocked to a strong quarter even while many other retailers struggled.

On the other hand, the US has suffered two weak job reports in a row with the May report being particularly devastating. In May, employers added only 38,000 jobs – the fewest in almost six years.

Revisions to prior reports also subtracted a total of 59,000 jobs from payrolls in the previous two months. Add to that the numbers of Americans working part-time jobs who want full-time jobs shot up from 6 million to 6.4 million. These “involuntary part-timers” continue to be a sign of considerable weakness in the job market. Finally, although the headline unemployment rate dropped to 4.7% this was largely due to a steep decline in labor force participation as millions of people have left the workforce in frustration.

The future is murky. Two bad months do not make a trend, but they may be a sign that the economy is losing what momentum it did have. On the other hand, maybe this is just the annual summer doldrums beginning a couple of weeks early. In any case, this is not the time to load up on debt or go out and buy a new Ferrari. Uncertainty calls for caution.

Here at Toyjobs, we are cautious but also quite optimistic. Over the last fifteen months, toy sales have been much stronger than the economy as a whole. I have no doubt that in six to eight weeks, toy companies will realize that the 2017 toy selling season is coming up fast and will begin the annual mad scramble for new or additional Sales Executives. Be advised that the Dallas “October” Fall Toy Preview arrives a little early this year on September 27th. It would be prudent to start your sales searches in late July or early August if you want your new people on board and ready to go.

All the best,
Tom Keoughan

By | June 8th, 2016|ToyJobs Blog|Comments Off on Toyjobs Continued Its Hot Hand

Toyjobs Logs Best Month Ever

In April, Toyjobs has logged its best month ever and we still have ten days left. In the toy business, a lot of searches are started early in the year but companies have difficulty arranging interview times and moving the ball forward in January and February due to all of the trade shows. Lots of jobs end up getting filled in March and April. That’s what we have seen in each of the last two years.

Search starts are continuing at a rapid pace. Toy sales were up approximately 6.5% last year. That makes companies happy and happy companies are hiring! Let’s hope it continues. Lots of hiring is good for everyone.

I’m sorry this is so brief but I gotta get back to work.

All the best,
Tom Keoughan

By | April 20th, 2016|ToyJobs Blog|Comments Off on Toyjobs Logs Best Month Ever

Strong Growth in Toy Jobs Projected

While the toy industry saw strong search starts in the first quarter, a lot of hiring decisions were postponed due to the uncertainty caused by the weak economic and retail environment. Starting in Q2, we were rocking and rolling again. Search starts continued at a good pace, but now previously delayed hiring decisions were being made.

In July, toy jobs continued to be filled, although, as usual, search starts slowed due to seasonal factors.  For the second straight year, search assignments restarted during the final week of July. I’ve been saying it for a long time, but it seems that toy companies have finally started to realize that if they want to add new members to their teams in time for the Fall Toy Preview, they have to start looking well before Labor Day.

From where I sit, toy industry hiring looks to be strong through the end of the year and beyond.  NPD has recently reported that toy sales improved by 6.5% in the first half. They also project an increase of 6.2% for the entire year. This will be the strongest growth in the toy industry has seen in decades. Several hot properties and product lines have been leading the charge, including:  Frozen, Shopkins, Minecrafts and Paw Patrol. Coming soon will be an all-out blitz by the Star Wars franchise.

Strong sales growth should create confidence in toy companies, which should in turn instigate their desire to grow. In particular, look for rivals to try to continue to bite off shelf space from still staggering Mattel. All of this growth will necessitate an increase in staff. I look for renewed toy industry confidence to spur hiring through the end of this year and into the next. May the force be with us.

All the best,
Tom Keoughan

By | August 12th, 2015|ToyJobs Blog|Comments Off on Strong Growth in Toy Jobs Projected

Toy Hiring Mimics the Poor March Jobs Report – But We’re Optimistic

By now I’m sure that most of you have heard about the sharp deceleration in March hiring after a long string of strong jobs reports. Non-farm payrolls slowed in March to a seasonally adjusted 126,000, the weakest hiring in 15 months. Hiring estimates for both January and February were also revised downward.

My gut feeling is that things are not as bad as that report indicates, despite the press running around crying that “the sky is falling.” After all, bad news sells. The US has had a number of soft first quarters in recent years. I haven’t been able to come up with an explanation for that phenomenon that I’m satisfied with yet. Lots of correlation but unconvincing causation. Here at Toyjobs, we don’t just make stuff up but it’s still important that we recognize the pattern.

There have been lots of layoffs recently in the oil and oil service businesses and certainly that is a factor. And, for the last two years, first quarter winter weather has been horrible. Last month, job growth in construction and leisure and hospitality, two of the most weather-sensitive industries, slowed by about 90,000 jobs. Days when the office is closed due to weather also takes a greater toll than it is generally given credit for. There are the snow days themselves and then there are the next few days of playing catch up. Yes, I know everyone claims that they can get all the work done or are even more productive from home but we all know that’s not entirely true, don’t we? This means multiple days taken away from interviewing and decision making all of which pushes actual hiring down the road.

In the toy industry it is not unusual for hiring to be slow in January and February as everybody hits the road for the global trade show circuit. There is no time to interview and make decisions. A lot of companies also decide on whether to create jobs based on trade show and early year sales results. Hiring can slow even as search starts increase.

That’s what we’re seeing this year. Here at Toyjobs, after an extremely strong fourth quarter, first quarter placements have been slow as search starts have been soaring. If both unemployment figures and search starts had gone into reversal, I would be concerned that the US economy was faltering. That has not been the case. Search starts have been quite robust and those searches are now beginning to come to completion. Many will be completed in April and May – a few weeks later than usual. This leaves me optimistic that poor first quarter jobs numbers represent a delay rather than a long term slowdown and that we are thankfully about to experience a rebound.

Optimistically,
Tom Keoughan

By | April 15th, 2015|ToyJobs Blog|Comments Off on Toy Hiring Mimics the Poor March Jobs Report – But We’re Optimistic

Strong Jobs Report Bodes Well for Holiday Sales Season

Even though traffic was slightly down during the annual Black Friday disgrace, human herds were still out in force. Many seemed to be of the opinions that this is a special holiday where they can let their worst instincts show while others appeared to feel that they had a license for legalized “wilding.” We are saddened to hear that this American “tradition” had now spread to the U.K.

 

This year, there was the usual litany of fist fights, Barbie doll brawls, pedestrians run over by cars in retail parking lots, and women flattened by falling big screen TVs. We also had way too many reports of police officers assaulting shoppers above and beyond the call of duty. In the video above, you can watch as officers appear to needlessly takedown a rather harmless looking woman. You can also see a group of officers repeatedly tasering some poor guy who looks like he’s just trying to get away from being tasered…again.

Retailers endlessly promote this insanity to drive excitement, foot traffic, and impulse buying. They know exactly what’s going to be rampaging through their doors and if you get hurt, you should sue them. Of course, you might be asked to explain why you would put yourself in a situation like that in the first place.

It appears that at least some people are beginning to wise up. Brick and mortar traffic and spending over the Thanksgiving weekend fell as internet sales boomed. Retailers also started offering deals days and even weeks before the main event, which may have helped to dissipate the door busting intensity.

So while Thanksgiving weekend sales were down about 11%, overall numbers for the holiday sales season have been good. The scuttlebutt is that Wal-Mart is doing very well and all internet sales (not just Amazon) are particularly strong. The toy industry is being helped by having a number of hot product lines. Anything “Frozen” or “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles” is flying off the shelves. And, a couple of hot lines from Australia’s Moose Toys, namely Shopkins and Little Live Pets, are doing quite well.

Overall, the National Retail Federation is predicting a 4.1% increase in sales this November and December. This year, retailers have the wind at their backs. Gasoline prices are down, which puts more money in consumers’ pockets. The economy has had strong growth over the last six months. Job growth, which began to be noticeable in October 2013 is accelerating, as seen in last Friday’s blockbuster jobs report. The consumer sentiment index has been rising since early summer and consumers are beginning to take on more credit card debt. All of this bodes well for this year’s holiday sales.

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Friday’s jobs report was the best we’ve seen in quite some time. Nonfarm payrolls added a seasonally adjusted 321,000 jobs in November and payroll gains for September and October were revised higher. The report also showed that wage growth is beginning to accelerate.

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I would caution employers that, for top performers, wage expansion is already here, particularly for key sales positions. Employers may be able to continue to tamp down salaries for your back office staff for a little while longer, but for VP of Sales and NAM’s at top accounts, that’s just not going to work. I’ve seen several clients do without because they don’t want to pay market rates for top sales talent. After the early 2015 trade shows as the toy industry hiring cycle switches to Marketing and Product Development, I expect to see wage pressure for the best people there, too. This might not affect wages for your number five Product Manager, but for top performers the pressure will be there.

Despite the accelerating improvement in the employment statistics, pain persists in a large part of the economy. In November, 2.8 million people had been out of work for more than six months. That’s about one third of the people who are currently unemployed. Also, approximately 7 million people were working part-time jobs because they couldn’t find full-time work. Hire these people. Help them if you can. But, don’t let their unfortunate situation cause you to think that you can continue to keep wages down for top performers. I have yet to hear a client say: “You know, don’t find me a top Target NAM from one of my competitors. Instead, find me one who has been out of work for a year.” If I heard that, I would probably fall out of my chair. Also, please remember, that as much as you’re looking to hire your competitor’s best people…your competitors are eyeballing yours. Things are getting better. You’re going to be forced to reward those people who are ready, willing, and able to run through brick walls. Things ARE getting better. You CAN afford to do so.

Here at Toyjobs, we have been running at warp speed since early August, successfully supplying our clients with the toy industry’s top talent. You can check here to see some of our most recent successes. The seasonal nature of the toy business causes it’s hiring cycles to be seasonal, so the larger share of our recent placements have been in the Sales field. Typically, we get a bit of a breather during the early part of the trade show season. I’m forecasting that after a successful holiday sales season, come late February, a lot of happy toy manufacturers will be looking to add to or upgrade their Marketing and Product Development departments. Ho! Ho! Ho! Let it be so.

Season’s Greetings,
Tom Keoughan

By | December 8th, 2014|ToyJobs Blog|Comments Off on Strong Jobs Report Bodes Well for Holiday Sales Season

Toy Industry Hiring Continues Robust Pace

The U.S. economy added jobs at a steady pace in July as job growth has had its strongest six-month stretch since 2006. Confusingly, the headline unemployment number (U-3) actually ticked up from 6.1 to 6.2%. This was largely because more people re-entered the workforce. Typically, a lot of people “leave the workforce” or stop looking for work during the summer months as well as during the holidays. This summer the hiring environment has been strong enough that a lot of people took themselves off the sidelines and got back into the job hunt.

A variety of talking heads have been spending a lot of time bemoaning the lack of solid wage gains. As someone who has spent three decades in the employment business, I can tell you that wage growth accelerates as the labor market tightens but there can be a considerable lag time. During the economic downturn employers held the upper hand in compensation negotiations. People were desperate to hold on to their jobs or to land a new one if they were unemployed. The perception (and fervent wishes) of employers is that this is still the case. There is a dialectic effect where perceived negotiation power swings between employers and employees and there is almost always a lag time of a year or two before the group holding that power realizes and admits that it is waning and even then they fight like hell to retain it. Today the process hasn’t even begun because while the employment picture is consistently strengthening we are nowhere near the tightened labor market.

There are two interesting asterisks of note in the U.S. employment story. The first is U-6 which includes part time workers who would prefer a full time job and workers who aren’t actually looking for work but would take a job if it was offered to them. U-6 has remained stubbornly above 12%. This reflects a lot of people engaged in consulting (there are certainly a lot of them in the toy business) as well as a lot of companies who need more pairs of hands but are not yet confident enough to commit to them as full time employees. Some of this also reflects the deleterious effect of Obamacare with businesses fighting to keep their employees under a thirty hour work week which would qualify them as “full time.”

The second asterisk is that it is widely unreported that the “white collar” population holding a college degree enjoys only a 3.1% unemployment rate while for those without a high school diploma the rate skyrockets to 9.6%.

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Focusing on the toy industry, hiring continues to be robust. For most of my thirty plus years, after an early summer slow down there would be an abrupt jump in search starts in late August. This coincided with goods being shipped to retailers’ warehouses. An order can change for almost any reason but once the pallet is on the retailers’ fork lift, manufacturers begin to feel like they’re on more solid ground. At the same time, senior execs returning from vacation would be jolted into the awareness that the following years sales season would begin in Dallas in about a month’s time. If they wanted to make adjustments to their sales staff they needed to begin looking at that immediately.

Last year … that didn’t happen. Retailers for the most part were a gloomy and pessimistic bunch. They were keeping inventories tight and bringing in goods as late as possible. The usual late August jump in search starts didn’t come. In fact, September was completely dead. Then, when goods finally did ship in very late September, all hell broke loose and manufacturers began hiring like crazy through the end of the year.

This year, like flipping a switch, Toyjobs phones started ringing off the hook with Sales searches during the last week of July and first week of August. Something had changed, but what? The retail environment certainly has not been all that good. Several of my clients have told me that this year retailers have planned to receive goods in a much more orderly fashion. After tracking the sales of small initial orders that arrived in June, they are bringing goods in stages rather than all at once. This allows the retailer to better control inventories and, in theory, allows the manufacturer to better control how much product they make. Of course, the lead times are still too short so that doesn’t really help manufacturers as much as advertised. In any event, this practice shortens the manufacturers sweat and fingernail biting period and they seem willing to start their sales searches soon enough to actually complete them by the Dallas Fall Toy Preview.

So, you may ask, “If there are so many sales searches why aren’t they posted on your job board?” That’s a good question and there are really two reasons. First, we like to get most of our candidate gathering work done before we post our searches. This is because part of our job is to evaluate search candidates against each other and focus our clients attention on those that we think fits their particular opportunity the best. This saves them time and effort. They like that. In order to facilitate this we like to have the bulk of our candidate selection done before everyone starts raising their hands. That way once people start contacting us about a posting we are better able to see where they fit in that searches candidate pool.

The second reason is for purely competitive purposes. There are a couple of recruiters out there who don’t have much in the way of a client base or repeat business. The reason for this is that they spend endless amounts of time and energy puffing on and on about how great they are but have a pretty poor track record when it comes to actually fulfilling searches. With a lot of time on their hands these recruiters continuously eyeball our job board and they try to worm their way into the search process. Since all of our searches are exclusive to Toyjobs, that rarely happens but it can be very disruptive to both our clients and candidates.

So there you have it. At the current time toy companies are aggressively looking for Sales Execs. Toyjobs is working on a large number of Sales searches. Look for them to pop up on our job board in the coming weeks. In the meantime, you very well might be hearing from us about a search that we haven’t posted yet.

Enjoy the rest of the summer!!
Tom Keoughan

By | August 13th, 2014|ToyJobs Blog|Comments Off on Toy Industry Hiring Continues Robust Pace

Toy Jobs – August Means Mixed Signals

When everyone heads off for summer vacation; any public utterance takes on greater importance because there are so many fewer voices in the air. The stock market may move but with so few active buyers and sellers it is difficult to discern if there is much conviction in its zigs or zags.

What we do know is that the eurozone is still locked in an existential crisis. There are rumblings of a slowdown in China and we are hurtling ever faster toward the fiscal cliff. While “Rome” may not yet be burning; both European and American politicians are either fiddling around or have gone on vacation.

The looming fiscal cliff and the threat that it may cause a double-dip recession is already making it difficult for businesses to plan, hire or expand. Retail sales have also stalled for several months as consumers wait for the other shoe to drop. Both businesses and consumers appear to be sitting on their wallets as they wait out tax, regulatory and election uncertainty. All this has caused the US economy to slow sharply.

While July gave us a better than expected jobs report with nonfarm payrolls rising by a seasonally adjusted 163,000, there appears to be something amiss. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of business activity fell below 50% (the dividing line between expansion and contraction) for the second month in a row for the first time since the depths of the Great Recession in 2009. At the same time the Bureau of Labor Statistics found that July factory jobs increased by 25,000. Hmmm, that seems a bit puzzling. It turns out that the BLS added 377,000 jobs for seasonal adjustment, the largest such adjustment for July in the last ten years. So, here in the real world, rather than there being 25,000 additional jobs there were actually 352,000 fewer.

The July unemployment rate ticked from 8.2% to 8.3%, while Toyjobs’ favorite statistic – U6, which includes people who’d prefer a full time job or more rewarding job but can’t find one, moved from 14.9% to 15.9%. That means that one in every seven Americans is either unemployed or underemployed. Paradoxically, the stock market keeps going up, reaching four year highs last week. Of course, this is also subject to a seasonal effect as stocks were traded in very small volumes as many buyers and sellers have gone to the beach.

There are, however, some reasons to be cheerful. Anecdotally, here at Toyjobs, we have, as expected, seen actual hiring slow during the summer months as companies have difficulty actually pulling the trigger due to vacations, daydreaming on Fridays, etc. There are, however, many searches “in process” which should close soon as the majority of people return to their desks. Also, search starts have been quite high since the beginning of August which is early in the annual job opening cycle. Stay tuned to our job board in the coming weeks as we’ll be posting many new toy jobs.

Also, the types of new job openings have started to shift. Over the last four years, what hiring there was has focused on Sales, Sourcing and Safety which can be translated to “revenues, cost reduction and regulation.” We are just beginning to see a boom in Marketing and Product Development jobs, which have been largely absent. Hopefully this is an indication that toy companies are no longer “hunkered down” and are ready to develop new products and try new things. Perhaps buyers are becoming less risk averse; at least in terms of the items they’re picking even if they’re still not willing to order on a timely basis.

Also, the National Retail Federation is projecting an almost 22% rise in back-to-school sales. We should keep in mind that these are only predictions based on a survey model and people will often say that they are going to spend more than they actually do. Add to that, back-to-school sales are a notoriously poor predictor of holiday spending – where the big money is.

The overall story here is that summer statistics, like summer love, is notoriously capricious. We shouldn’t put too much stock in them. We shouldn’t take too seriously the non-vacationing jabberers pointing at them to support whatever strain of the truth they are paid to push on the rest of us. Summers are slow and there is less going on which gives whatever is happening the appearance of greater significance. It’s wise to wait for September and, better yet, October data which is much more reliable to try to divine what our true circumstances are. That said, it would be incredibly beneficial if currently vacationing or campaigning politicos would give a one year extension to the current taxation, spending and regulatory regime providing both businesses and consumers the confidence needed to get their heads and wallets back into the game. No need to leave the beach. Ya’ll can just Skype it in.

All the best,
Tom Keoughan

By | August 22nd, 2012|ToyJobs Blog|Comments Off on Toy Jobs – August Means Mixed Signals

PlayCon a Big Success – Toy Industry Adds Jobs!

In mid-May I attended my first PlayCon in Washington, DC, and I confess that I really didn’t know what to expect.  I must say that I was beyond pleasantly surprised.  The event was held at the Gaylord National Convention Center, a beautiful facility situated right on the Potomac.  It was self-contained, easy to navigate, and within easy walking distance of several outposts of well know Manhattan restaurants.

After we were jolted awake by a combination of caffeine and an opening bagpipe ceremony, we settled in for a very meaty schedule of speakers.  I’m not going to reveal here what they had to say (for that you would have to actually go) but I will give you a brief rundown of topics.

 

The first two speakers, Anita Frazier of NPD and Sean McGowan (who everyone already knows) provided hard data about trends in both the toy industry and some adjacent businesses.  It was valuable to be able to confirm some things that you mostly knew in your gut, but more importantly some of the data was counterintuitive; especially on the hot topic of apps (it’s not just about product without inventory).

Well known children’s product consultant Tom McGrath then spoke at length about both the art and the science of license selection.  Licensing can be very hit and/or miss, and Tom was very forthcoming about many of his wins and losses, why they occurred, and what he learned from them in hindsight.

Next up were Lego and Mattel.  Everyone was thankful to them for opening the kimono on the why’s and how’s of their consumer research programs and I think we were equally grateful to Messrs. Wann and Barbour for refraining from revealing exactly what was under their kilts!

After lunch, Brian Torney of Kunoichi led an interesting panel about how to think about marketing in the digital world which also featured Hasbro’s Chief Visionary Steve Drucker.  Steve peered into his crystal ball to prognosticate where technology might lead the children’s product business ten years in the future and beyond.

After breaking into workshop subgroups, everyone returned to see Bob Wann do a Q&A with senior Amazon executives Jon Witham and John Alteio.  They discussed how to best do business with the online retail giant and also drilled down into the detail of how to optimize your product pages in order to sell more goods.

Lastly on day one, Bob Wann interviewed Neil Friedman who brings a unique perspective from spending a lifetime in the toy business including senior positions with both Mattel and Toys R Us.  They talked about how manufacturers and retailers can work together more proactively and effectively.  It is all about managing expectations; doing what you say you are going to do and most of all communication.

Day two kicked off with LeapFrog President (and former TRU senior executive) John Barbour speaking with TRU SVP Merchandising Richard Barry. After that we dove back again into the world of consumer research.  First, with George Carey of brand strategy agency The Family Room who brought his unique perspective (backed by data, of course) on how families actually make decisions.  It made perfect sense but was not at all what I thought it would be going in.

Renee Weber, VP Consumer Research for The Marketing Store, then spoke on the really big picture about some of her groups’ findings and how they have translated into the design of McDonald’s Happy Meal toys.  Lastly, a lively panel on consumer research led by the very entertaining Paul Kurnit, toy advertising consultant at Kurnit Communications. (You can sign up for his RSS feed at psinsights.com)

Kudos go to Bob Wann and Shirley Price and the conference planning committee: Lourdes Arocho, Joel Berger, Mary Couzin, Richard Gill, Richard Gottlieb, Sharon Hartley, and Manuel Torres for putting together a program that was jam-packed with information.  I would also like to commend all of the speakers for the spirit of sharing which prevailed throughout the entire conference.  The content delivered at PlayCon was broad, deep, and thought-provoking.  While everyone may know parts of this stuff, I think I can safely say that everybody in attendance was able to bring home some immediately implementable takeaways.  If you weren’t there then you are just that much behind your competitors.

One thing I have learned over the last few years is that any event with Carter Kethley’s thumbprint on it is going to feature great food!  At PlayCon, he did not disappoint and as always was the perfect host.  Everything ran so smoothly that I realized that while the Toy Industry Association’s (TIA) Event Staff all appeared to be as serene as swans, they must have been paddling like hell underneath!  Shout outs go to:  Marian Bossard, Kimberly Carcone, Jackson Wong, Robyn Gibbs, and Kimberly Catucci.

PlayCon was a great place to network and meet new industry colleagues but more importantly for me a great place to solidify existing relationships away from the frenetic pace of trade shows where everyone is focused on selling – as they should be.

In other news (great segue, huh?) the U.S. had a pretty weak May jobs report.  Employers added a seasonally adjusted 69,000 jobs last month and the estimates for the two previous months were adjusted downward.  The unemployment rate moved up from 8.1% to 8.2%.  To be completely accurate there has been some discussion that the Labor Department’s seasonal adjustment equation has been thrown out of whack.  Read more here.

Factors contributing to the weak jobs report include the warm winter leading companies to hire seasonal workers earlier which boosted winter job growth while stealing from spring hiring.  Additionally, renewed concerns about Europe with Greece, Spain and Italy all having trouble borrowing to finance their government spending has been unsettling.  This could potentially lead to a domino effect amongst financial institutions.  More importantly, the European recession will be a drag on global economic growth especially now that Asia (which has Europe as its largest customer) is now starting to slow.  Lastly, there is the domestic political situation including the pending fiscal cliff which could drive the US into recession and may be causing businesses to hold off on hiring.

Anecdotally, here at Toyjobs we have seen toy companies continue to add to their staffs at a rapid clip.  Toy search starts have also continued to be strong.  That said, we are just about to enter the summer doldrums where for thirty years Toyjobs has seen certain regular patterns in both good economies and bad.  I expect search starts to slow in the next week or two as the annual summer slowdown begins. Jobs will continue to be filled through the first three weeks of July as searches that began in May and June are completed.  At that point things will be very slow until the last week or two of August when search starts begin to ramp up in response to the upcoming fall sales season. (Fall Toy Preview will be right around the corner.)

My concern is that due to either an implosion in Europe or continued brinksmanship and bipartisan idiocy in Washington, DC, employers may sit on their hands come late August and that the annual search start bounce will be muted.  Most pragmatic people realize that the current tax and spending regime should be extended through 2013.  We’re going to have an election in November to determine which ideological (idiot-logical?) path the country is going to take, but in the meantime let’s hope the politicians do not drive the bus off of a fiscal cliff.  Since an extension is likely to be what happens anyway, let’s root for it to happen now so that businesses can plan which will hopefully lead to hiring and business investment.  In the current political environment, however, I am not going to hold my breath.

Moving forward, we do have a few reasons to be optimistic.  The biggest job loser in May was construction, which shed 28,000 positions.  The industry lost hundreds of thousands of jobs as the residential housing market collapsed.  In May, heavy construction jobs also began to be cut as the money for “stimulus/roadwork everywhere” has begun to come to an end.  However, few other sectors actually cut jobs.  Most simply did not hire much.  One exception was the transportation and warehousing category, which added 35,000 jobs, mostly in railroads and trucking.  Transportation is generally considered to be a leading indicator of economic growth.  Secondly, Wal-Mart is growing again.  First quarter earnings rose 10% as the retailing behemoth saw US customer traffic and average purchases rise.

So, the US economy is still growing albeit not quickly enough and faces headwinds in European and Asian economic slowdowns and a few potential landmines from Europe and Washington DC. I’m moving forward but cautiously with the feeling that if we can just avoid the landmines everything will be alright although not as good as I would like it to be.

Overdue Updates

Since the beginning of the year, I’ve been running so hard on the hamster wheel that a few things have popped up that I didn’t really have time to digest so I’ll share them with you here:

  • Toyjobs received a Constant Contact 2011 All Star Award for our newsletter which you are reading now.  I would like to thank all of our readers for taking the time out of their busy schedules to look us over every month or so.  I would also like to thank all of you who send in positive feedback after each publication.
  • Secondly, I have been elected to the Board of The Pinnacle Society as Treasurer.  The Pinnacle Society is a group limited to 75 of the top executive recruiters in North America and I would like to thank their membership for being in excellent long-term educational asset as well as for putting their faith and trust in me.

So that’s it.  Enjoy the summer slowdown.  I hope you all have a chance to step off of the daily hamster wheel and spend some time relaxing and recharging your batteries for the next go round.
Moving Ahead Cautiously,

Tom Keoughan

By | June 19th, 2012|ToyJobs Blog|Comments Off on PlayCon a Big Success – Toy Industry Adds Jobs!

Toyjobs Prevails in Personal Fraud Suit vs. Ivars Sondors

The Superior Court of New Jersey has awarded Toyjobs a default  judgment in the amount of $39,456.00 in its personal fraud suit against former  A-HA Toys president Ivars Sondors.

Toyjobs president Tom Keoughan said: “I certainly expect  that Mr. Sondors will try to make it difficult to collect but we have chased  him for over three years across two continents. He should realize by now that  we’re not going away. The beautiful thing about a judgment obtained on a  Complaint for fraud is that it can’t be cleared through bankruptcy. It sticks  around and so shall we.”

By | December 7th, 2011|ToyJobs Blog|Comments Off on Toyjobs Prevails in Personal Fraud Suit vs. Ivars Sondors