It’s time again for the annual swirl of confusing numbers emanating from retailers and Wall Street’s retail analysts. Retail traffic was up on “Black Friday” and the post holiday weekend, but the average consumer spent less, an average of $347 down from $360 a year ago. Surveys showed that the average person had completed 36% of their holiday shopping which is equivalent to last year. All this seems to indicate that this year we had a better gauge due to a larger statistical sample which seemed to show that consumers will be spending less this Christmas.
But all the hype and hoopla which surrounds the day after Thanksgiving exaggerates the extent to which it predicts total holiday sales. There are plenty of people, like me, who wouldn’t be caught dead anywhere near any retail establishment (with the possible exception of the wine shop) at any time during the entire weekend. “Black Friday” and the following weekend are the shotgun start to the high shopping season – not a predictive bellwether.
Here’s where things get really confusing. If you look at the following chart, it’s easy to see that total November sales were very strong. Unfortunately, comparisons are difficult. There was an extra “shopping week” at the end of November which skewed total sales numbers higher and that extra “shopping week” will be lost when we examine December sales. Also both store traffic and sales volume dropped off after Thanksgiving weekend. We should also consider that due to the long “indian summer”, throughout much of the nation, that a significant portion of the spending went toward warmer clothing.
| Bargain-Hunting Season | |||
| Retail sales for November 2007 | |||
|
Total November sales |
|||
| Discounters |
In millions |
Chg. From year ago |
Comparable stores chg. from year ago |
| Wal-Mart* |
$31,718.0 |
+8.4% |
+1.5% |
| Target |
5,972.0 |
+16.7 |
+10.8 |
| Costco** |
5,720.0 |
+13.0 |
+6.0 |
| Department Stores | |||
| Macy’s |
2,713.0 |
+13.9% |
+13.4% |
| Kohls |
2,023.2 |
+20.0 |
+10.2 |
| J.C. Penney*** |
1,709.0 |
+5.8 |
+2.6 |
| Nordstrom |
804.9 |
+7.4 |
+8.7 |
| Dillard’s |
559.3 |
+2.0 |
+1.0 |
| Neiman Marcus |
360.0 |
+8.7 |
+5.8 |
| Saks |
347.6 |
+26.3 |
+25.7 |
| Apparel | |||
| TJX |
1,800.0 |
+10.0% |
+7.0 |
| Gap |
1,540.0 |
+11.0 |
0 |
| Limited |
858.7 |
-8.4 |
-7.0 |
| Ann Taylor |
209.2 |
+12.2 |
+3.9 |
| Teen Apparel | |||
| Abercrombie & Fitch |
352.3 |
+25.0% |
+2.0 |
| American Eagle Outfitters |
285.8 |
+16.0 |
0 |
| Sources: the companies; WSJ Data Group | |||
*Comparable sales for U.S. stores only, excluding fuel sales
**Comparable sales for U.S. stores only
***Department stores only
What people are buying is of particular concern to toy manufacturers. There were an awful lot of “Guitar Hero” games and Nintendo Wii’s (do we count those as toys?) moving out the doors. Generally consumers seemed to be focused on AWAP (Anything with a Plug). There doesn’t seem to be any “gotta have it” product driving people into the toy aisles this year and that controversial last minute Ecology Center study trumpeting that over one third of toys contained dangerous chemicals certainly didn’t help.
So where does all this leave us. It seems that thus far, total holidays sales appear to be strong BUT a larger percentage than normal of total holiday sales has been counted. Sales seem to be slowing BUT we still have the two crazy final weeks of holiday shopping to go. I think its best to cross your fingers, close your eyes and hold on tight. There’s not much we can do about it now and soon enough we’ll find out where we’re heading.
Happy Holidays!
Tom Keoughan
