Another year – another national disgrace as the human herds were once again rampaging through the nation’s retail outlets in what is little more than legalized wilding. While spreading out the bait over several days made the peak frenzy a little less intense, it also means that we now have four consecutive days of mayhem.
As usual, we had human (?) stampedes, knockdown merch, brawls, aggressively unnecessary pepper-sprayings, shotgun battles over parking spots, a guy stabbed while carrying home his new big screen TV, police officers being dragged by cars through parking lots, and a new low: kids having a stun gun fight in a Philadelphia mall.
Thank you Wal-Mart, Thank you Target, Thank you Best Buy, Thank you Kohl’s for inciting this dehumanizing behavior. If I or a member my family was foolish enough to venture out into these deal hunting scrums and became injured; you can be sure that I’d be having a phalanx of the most rabid attorneys around suing you for intentional reckless endangerment. I’m sure we could find a slew of other legal misdeeds as well (BLACK FRIDAY DEATH COUNT)
More people were out participating in the melee than ever before, but on average, people spent less than last year ($407 vs. $423). Maybe retailers’ promotional activity pulled forward some holiday purchases earlier into November. Maybe, with smart phones at the ready, consumers are better able to make price comparisons and sniff out the best Black Friday deals. What does appear clear is that retailers have cut costs so much that it will negatively affect their margins and those of its suppliers (Wait? That’s us!).
In the meantime, toy industry hiring has soared. As reported here last time out, search starts rocketed in early October as children’s products started hitting the retailers’ shelves. Toy companies have been filling those jobs at a feverish clip which continues to this day. The pace will likely be maintained through year end. On January 2nd, the toy industry, as a whole, will board the planes for their annual pilgrimage to Hong Kong. This time out, a whole lot of business cards will be wearing fresh, wet ink.
The surge in hiring appears to be mirrored in the economy at large. Payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 203,000 in November. Earlier months have been revised upward and the job increases have now averaged 193,000 for the past three months.
That is nearly enough to impact the unemployment rate in a meaningful way. The jobs recovery has had false starts before, but this time it seems much more solid and sustainable.
Other economic data seem to support an improving outlook. Third quarter economic growth has been revised sharply higher to 3.6%. US consumer spending is up 2.1% from a year ago. Wages are up a modest 0.2% Consumer Confidence is on the rise and The Federal Reserve reported that credit card debt has risen to the highest amount in three years. All of those are hopeful signs that shoppers will be out buying more toys, Xboxes, and iPhones in the coming weeks.
I would like to see a few more months of improving economic data before declaring that the train has left the station, but it does appear that we are finally, finally gathering momentum. Remember folks, you heard it here first – all the way back in October…now if Washington can just stay out of the way.
It is my fervent holiday wish for the coming year that the economy continues to gather strength in a sustainable way and that there are more and more jobs for people who don’t have them and want them, especially the long term unemployed. God bless us, everyone!
All the best,
Tom Keoughan
